Erap to formally announce bid Oct 21
by Manny Mogato, Reuters | 10/20/2009 10:58 AM
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MANILA - Former Philippine President Joseph "Erap" Estrada, removed from office by a popular revolt in 2001, is expected to make a formal announcement on Wednesday to seek the presidency for a second time in elections next May.
The hard-living 72-year-old former action movie hero, who was convicted of plunder and then pardoned, has vowed to win the presidency again to clear his name and leave a legacy as "the man who championed the cause of the masses".
Here are some questions and answers on Estrada and his prospects:
IS HE ELIGIBLE TO STAND?
Estrada is convinced he is, but this is a grey area. The constitution restricts the president to a single six-year term, but is not clear on whether a president who has had to leave office in mid-term can run again.
If Estrada does file his nomination, it will almost certainly be challenged and the Supreme Court asked to rule.
In the event he is disqualified, Estrada would remain a potent political force because he can bring in a large section of the populace to any candidate he decides to support.
HOW LIKELY IS ESTRADA TO WIN?
Estrada remains popular as shown by ratings in opinion polls, which consistently place him among the top five likely candidates to succeed President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo whose term will end on June 30, 2010.
Estrada has a large following among low-income voters, unlike many other candidates whose appeal is limited to urban areas or to the middle class. This is mostly ascribed to his Robin Hood type of leading man roles in films and a folksy, commoner image that he has strived to maintain.
Estrada has the funds and political machinery to campaign for the presidency, translating popularity into actual votes on election day, analysts said.
But the death of democracy icon, former president Corazon "Cory" Aquino, in August has led to a surge in the popularity of her son. Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino has surged ahead in the latest opinion poll with a huge 60 percent rating and Estrada has slipped. It is too soon however to say if this is the start of a trend and Aquino can sustain his popularity.
WHAT ARE HIS ECONOMIC POLICIES LIKELY TO BE?
During his 30 months in office as president from 1998, Estrada initiated moves to amend the constitution to repeal nationalist economic provisions, including restrictions on foreign investment in some sectors as well as on land ownership.
But most businessmen are not fans of Estrada, largely because of his so-called midnight cabinet of drinking and gambling buddies, and a culture of patronage during his time in office.
His populist slogan "Erap para sa mahirap" (Erap is for the poor) makes the business community nervous about his economic agenda, especially since he has promised to leave a legacy as "the man who championed the cause of the masses."
WHAT WILL BE HIS POLITICAL PLATFORM?
When he was president, Estrada attracted the ire of the influential Catholic church over his support for capital punishment and promotion of contraceptives to control the country's rapid population growth.
Three men were executed through lethal injection during his brief term and Estrada's government had taken steps to legalise gambling through an on-line lottery and numbers game.
Estrada also risked straining the country's diplomatic ties with Malaysia over his staunch support for opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim as well as launching an all-out military offensive against the country's largest Muslim rebel group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
Estrada's three main campaign issues are: controlling population growth, eliminating corruption and ending communist and Muslim insurgencies to attract more investment to the country's resource-rich regions.
Analysts fear Estrada might get back at his political enemies, including business and church leaders responsible for his ouster, once he gets re-elected.
HOW WILL THE MARKET REACT?
Traders have warned that prospects of an Estrada victory closer to the elections could spook financial markets.
They have said they want a leader who will push for genuine reforms, but who is not tainted with corruption, has a good track record and is trusted by the business sector.
If he is elected, analysts said it crucial that Estrada make the right choices for key cabinet posts, otherwise the country will lose investor interest. One market analyst described Estrada as an "investment risk".
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